Perspectives

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Dividend Aristocrats

October, 2022

Dividends are a crucial component of any long-term equity strategy and, simply put, might be the only tangible return earned by the permanent owner of an equity asset. They significantly contribute to long term equity market performance (between 30% and 50% of total returns depending on the market in question) and excepting corporate action, drive […]

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KISSing the gilt curve

October, 2022

Regular readers will know that at Tacit we believe it is generally good to KISS, that it to “Keep It Simple Stupid”. There is a place for more complex investment instruments and strategies which make use of derivatives, harvest arbitrage differences, or amplify returns by using borrowing (known as leverage), but the first essential rule […]

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What should you worry about as an investor?

October, 2022

A member of the team came across a list of annual financial and geopolitical events going back over a century which many investors may deem life changing and ‘unprecedented’. In our view, the term ‘unprecedented’ is used more frequently than it should and implies that events could not be anticipated. This just is not the […]

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Market Reaction to the UK’s Fiscal Event

September, 2022

UK financial markets have reacted extremely badly to the “fiscal event” launched by Kwasi Kwarteng, the new Chancellor of the Exchequer. Every British financial asset has slumped: equities, gilts, and the external value of the pound. House prices look vulnerable to a sharp rise in mortgage rates as the Bank of England debates how to […]

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Trickle down or bottom-up economics? It’s the wrong question

September, 2022

Our new Prime Minister and Chancellor want to change things for the better. Their economic policy is naturally a little un-fleshed, but the skeleton of the programme is visible; it is a return to a Thatcherite or Reaganite past informed by Hayek, Friedman, Keith Joseph and Enoch Powell, the latter two described as “very great […]

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The world has changed, most people just don’t see it

September, 2022

Since the financial crisis of 2008, the attention of too many investors in the West has become focussed on the expectation of persistently low and lower interest rates, and ever higher valuations for equities in companies imbued with a lot of future hope value. All other things being equal, technically, a lower interest rate (the […]

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Whither Markets?

August, 2022

It is often said that “markets go up on an escalator and come down in a lift.” Unquestionably it has been a very poor first half for financial markets. Some of the reasons are clear and obvious; others reflect a more subtle but rapidly changing economic environment, particularly with respect to inflation and a reversal […]

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Of Prosperity and Pachyderms

July, 2022

May we talk about the elephant in the room? In the course of British history, we have been invaded by the Romans, pillaged by the Vikings, and conquered by the French. Indeed, Norman French is still used during a Bill’s passage through Parliament and the Royal Assent, at least in part, is given in French. […]

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Looking for a Steady State

July, 2022

During the credit crisis of 2008 and the subsequent Euro crisis of 2010, we heard a lot about, “kicking the can down the road.” It was a familiar trope in the financial press at the time; policymakers had no real idea how to solve the problems that had presented themselves, and like the Dutch child […]

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Which is better, real, or nominal GDP?

July, 2022

A rise in nominal GDP makes you feel good, but only a rise in real GDP can make you wealthier. In a normal functioning economy prices change all the time. Some prices will rise but others will fall, leaving aggregate prices relatively unchanged. Fluctuating price is not inflation; it is only when prices in aggregate […]