Perspectives

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Making the Right Decision

July, 2018

Decisions, decisions. It’s a daily dilemma. Whether you’re saving lives or livelihoods, you want to get it right. In our world we’re under orders from The Chartered Institute for Securities and Investment to undertake and I quote: “continuous professional development.” The CISI rightly expects us to maintain our skills and capacity to practice in our […]

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World Cup Predictions

July, 2018

To the man with a hammer, any problem looks like a nail. And to use this tool to solve every challenge makes the outcome as uncertain as a football penalty shoot-out. In trying to predict the results of the World Cup, analysts at some reputable firms have been busy with their large data sets and […]

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The Price of Growth

July, 2018

We’ve mentioned before that at Tacit Investment Management we don’t have a quantitative edge.  This doesn’t mean we don’t use quantitative data in making decisions. An understanding of quantitative data in the context of history can provide very useful insights. Most people compare the market today to the Dot-com bubble in 1999/2000 because they both […]

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Good Active Management

June, 2018

Some call it “the gentleman’s game.” Others say it reflects life itself. Whatever your view, the sport of cricket paints a picture of a typical English summer. In its Test Match format, you have unlimited overs. A batsman can take time to score runs and isn’t penalised for not hitting the ball. Good decision making […]

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Trump, trade and unintended consequences

June, 2018

The US, under Donald Trump, is turning protectionist. And the President’s plan to restrict imports will see the country’s external balance of trade deficit as evidence of “a war that is easy to win.” Here at Tacit we believe that, like most of his policymaking, it’s his “base” that will largely bear the costs. According […]

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Investigative Investing

June, 2018

Investing is both a science and an art. To be a successful investor, you need to have an edge. This can be quantitative, qualitative or behavioural. In general terms a quantitative edge is measurement and today that also means the use of complex computer models to process data. Qualitative is harder to measure but includes […]

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Itchy Fingers

June, 2018

We’re often asked why we don’t make more changes to our strategies. It’s a fair question. The fact is we haven’t altered our core holdings in over a year. To an outsider this might look like we’re busy doing nothing. But our view is that a considered decision not to change holdings is in reality […]

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The True Value of Gold

June, 2018

There are over 100 billion galaxies in the visible universe. The Milky Way galaxy, where we live, consists of more than 300 billion stars like our own sun. Some of these stars will have a few planets revolving around them similar to our solar system. A few of these planets will be the right size, […]

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Italy, politics and Super Mario

May, 2018

“There is no better protection against the Euro crisis than successful structural reforms in Southern Europe.” Strong words from Mario Draghi, the President of the European Central Bank. But what he didn’t forecast 6-years ago when he made the comment was the political power grab in Italy by a far right, anti-immigration party combined with […]

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Spurious Correlations & Interest Rates

May, 2018

Did you know that two things can be strongly correlated and yet completely independent of each other at the same time? We love relationships – even relationships that aren’t there. Maybe it’s a human need. The website spurious correlations has a lengthy list of absurd correlations. For example, the number of Nicholas Cage films in […]