Perspectives

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Not all that glistens is gold

February, 2022

Many investors have become obsessed with interest rate rises in the short term and on how this affects the valuation of a company. We have written many times over the past decade that until interest rates provide, or are forecast to provide, a positive real return on a multi-year basis, not a lot has really […]

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Drink Deep or Taste Not

February, 2022

“A little learning is a dangerous thing, Drink deep, or taste not the Pierian spring.” Alexander Pope, “Essay on Criticism” (1711) Augustan poetry may not be to your taste, but Pope’s rhyming couplet contains a truth that is often forgotten by investors. It is important to know and understand what you are invested in and […]

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Context is vital when investing for the longer term

January, 2022

As January draws to a close one point has confused many investors: why is my portfolio value down whilst the Footsie 100 has risen? This observation is a valid one over this short period and we feel it needs explanation and putting into the context of history. Firstly, the geographic breakdown of our strategies is […]

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Stockmarket Volatility

January, 2022

Investment management is a discipline founded on mathematics, however there are so few mathematical certainties within it. Rather, investors are usually dealing with probabilities; things that might happen based on our best estimates of a range of contingent variables. There is however one mathematical relationship which is fundamental; that between “price” and “yield.” Yields move […]

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Time in the market versus timing the market

January, 2022

Investors are taught that markets are unpredictable, that past performance is no guide to the future! Why then is past performance used by the average investor when making fund selection decisions? The following example is rather old but holds true today and provides an insight into why the Tacit thought process steers clear of forecasts. […]

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Diversification is good and bad for long term returns

December, 2021

Imagine you are a schoolteacher. You are looking for a new job and there are two alternatives. The first involves a small school – there are 20 pupils, admitted for their ability. It isn’t an easy job. You will be responsible for keeping a very close eye on the children, analysing their every move, every […]

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Why has the velocity of money been falling whilst QE is expanding?

December, 2021

The velocity of money measures how many times a pound or dollar is spent. It is a good indicator of whether firms and consumers are confident enough to go out and spend. It can therefore act as a barometer of economic growth. The more transactions in an economy, the healthier the economy. Conventional economic theory […]

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Inflation: Transitory or Not?

November, 2021

Cast your mind back to 1990: Nelson Mandela was released from prison, Tim Berners-Lee published a proposal that would lead to the creation of the World Wide Web, East and West Germany reunited after the fall of the Soviet Union and British Gilt-edged securities paid investors 12.74% (in April 1990) annually guaranteed by the taxpayer. […]

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Strategy Update

November, 2021

Over the past few weeks, it has been difficult to ignore the increasing news flow around inflation and whether this is ‘transient’ or a more permanent phenomenon. During 2020 we wrote at length about the impact of COVID on global supply chains and how this would impact the world economy in the short, medium, and […]

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Don’t lead, follow The Money

November, 2021

Environmental investing has gained prominence over the last few years. As the evidence showing the human impact on the climate piles up, companies and governments are increasingly voting with their wallets instead of just paying lip service to the issue. This naturally has implications for us as custodians of your investments. The trend towards sustainable […]

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