Perspectives

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It’s A Looking Glass World

September, 2019

The period in which we live is drenched in contradictions; political, economic and financial. The poor old White Queen has been dragged from the pages of Through the Looking Glass to declaim on believing “six impossible things before breakfast” more times than we can count. Most recently on the Today programme this week. The financial […]

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Beware the Noise

September, 2019

Over the last few days, the news has been largely negative – from the rising risks of a no-deal Brexit to Boris Johnson’s suspension of parliament and a falling sterling. We have highlighted many times before that the noise created by political events must be blocked out when making longer term investment decisions, no matter […]

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Rational Optimism

August, 2019

Blaise Pascal, the French mathematician and philosopher aptly diagnosed the human condition over 300 years ago. “All of man’s miseries derive from not being able to sit in a quiet room alone”. This is because we hate being bored and can’t stop ourselves from worrying. Boredom and worry are not the ally of the investor […]

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How Might A No-deal Be Positive?

August, 2019

G K Chesterton once noted that to defeat an argument you needed to be able to state your opposition’s case, “better than they could.” With the likelihood of the UK falling out of the EU without a deal rising, we need to consider whether such an outturn could be beneficial to investors in the UK […]

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The Role of Stabilisers

August, 2019

The venture capitalist Paul Graham said that investors should treat optimism similarly to how one would treat the core of a nuclear reactor – as a source of power that is also very  dangerous. “You have to build a shield around it or it will fry you”. This is similar to how we view the […]

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Power Law

August, 2019

Over 300 years of Romanov rule ended in 10 days during the Russian revolution. Very few cars are majority contributors to overall air pollution. A few words in the English language like “the” and “is” occur with disproportionate frequency compared to every other word. A minority of the population owns the majority of the wealth. […]

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Changing Fiscal Policy – Austerity to Spendthrift

August, 2019

In the long slow recovery from the great financial crisis, the conduct of monetary policy has all but eclipsed fiscal policy in the major economies. By fiscal policy, we mean changes by government to the general level of taxation and the government’s own spending. Prior to 2008, almost all postwar recessions had been rectified, at […]

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Risk Adjusted Returns

July, 2019

At Tacit, we firmly believe that equities are a good thing in the long run. Over time, rising equity markets are good for confidence, good for an individual’s wealth and ultimately good for the economy as people spend more when they feel wealthier. It is important however to remember that downturns in equity markets can […]

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EI Group Bought by Stonegate

July, 2019

One of the UK’s top leisure activities is still, “going down the pub.” The eating and drinking market according to the MCA UK Pub Market Report (2018) is worth £89 billion per year. Despite the well documented decline in public house numbers, it’s estimated that 15 pubs a week are closing, there are still some […]

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Forecasting

July, 2019

“If you spend more than 13 minutes analysing economic and market forecasts, you’ve wasted 10 minutes”. This is a quote from Peter Lynch, the Fund manager of Fidelity’s Magellan fund. During his tenure, the fund had an annualised return of 30% over a 13-year period. While this quote carries a hint of hyperbole, its message […]

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