Perspectives

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All Roads Lead to Rome

July, 2021

You may have noticed that a small footballing victory this week sends our domestic “English” team to Rome for their quarter-final against Ukraine. This prompted us to think about Italy in Europe and to consider one of the few rational reasons for Britain departing the European Union: chronic economic stagnation. The IMF recently published their […]

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Growth versus Value

June, 2021

There is no right or wrong when considering the valuation of a company today with its potential returns in the future. Sometimes, expensive companies do well and at other times those trading cheaply perform well. The factors that influence whether a company trading on a price-earnings (P/E) ratio of 22 today performs better than a […]

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Disruption

June, 2021

“Past performance is not a guarantee of future results” is pasted across multitudes of financial promotions that we see every day. While this statement is correct, the following question naturally arises: If the past is not a guarantee of what the future will look like, is the future fundamentally unknowable?   While past performance is […]

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Boom coming?

June, 2021

Recent events in financial markets have been coloured by rising fears of inflation. Anybody under the age of 50 has not experienced inflation in the way that the 1970s distorted pricing, spending decisions and investment. In fact, in recent years most people have benefited from a different type of inflation, house price inflation. From an […]

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Squaring the Cycle

June, 2021

The philosopher Friedrich Hegel observed that human society makes progress by moving from one extreme to another as it seeks to overcompensate for previous extremes. This constant swing between extremes is just as natural in the investment world, albeit occurring on much shorter timescales. The primary driver for these swings in investing is, as ever, […]

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Bits vs Bytes

May, 2021

From the early 1900s until about 2010, the largest companies in the world were dominated by those operating in the tangible world of bits. Most of these companies developed products and services that were in the domain of chemical engineering (Oil & Gas majors, pharmaceuticals) or mechanical/electrical engineering (Toyota, General Electric, AT&T, IBM). However, in […]

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Managing Portfolio Risks

May, 2021

Any functioning market is comprised of two groups: willing buyers and willing sellers. That might seem an obvious point but the complexity behind the apparently obvious has sustained decades of academic research and Nobel prizes awarded. Information asymmetry is always a problem; the chap selling you that car always knows more about it than you […]

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On Inflation, Again

May, 2021

Equity markets have been volatile this week. Many have put this down to investors becoming concerned with increasing worries about higher inflation and how this will impact interest rates in the future. We do not buy into this narrative. We believe much of the current commentary around inflation is misplaced, as it fails to distinguish […]

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Napoleon, Money, & Bitcoin

May, 2021

It was the 200th anniversary this week of the lonely death on the British possession of St Helena of that great scourge of Europe, the man that the Duke of Wellington described as the best general, “In this age, in past ages, in any age,” Napoleon. We tend to look at history through the eyes […]

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Hidden Value

April, 2021

Since the Global Financial Crisis of 2008, technology companies have been the best performing companies in both developing and developed markets. At least that has been the narrative. A more accurate analysis of what has happened reveals something perhaps less interesting because it is quite obvious. The companies that have performed well over the last […]

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