Perspectives
Uncommon Common Sense
October, 2018
Around the 6th century, Slavic people from modern day Czech, Slovakia, Poland, Russia and elsewhere in central Europe began to appear in great numbers all over the continent. The origin of the Slavic people puzzled historians for centuries. Anthropologists and linguists were also left scratching their heads for clues. It wasn’t until the 1800s when […]
Why we shouldn’t cry for Argentina
September, 2018
We got all sentimental this week. We held our quarterly Investment Strategy Group meeting to discuss opportunities and risks in global markets. Someone brought up Argentina and the words of the hit song came flooding back. “And as for fortune and as for fame, I never invited them in.” And so on. So why Argentina? […]
Understanding Risk
September, 2018
The global economy is often described as a machine. The problem with this analogy is that machines operate in the physical world where there is a strong link between cause and effect. Outcomes in the physical world are often deterministic. This is why we can accurately predict the motion of distant planets or the precise […]
Ten Years After the Crash
September, 2018
Zhou Enlai, the first Premier of the People’s Republic of China was asked what he thought the significance of the French Revolution was for Western civilisation. He thought for a moment and replied: “it’s too early to tell.” Ten years after the global financial crisis what are the lessons for us to learn or is […]
Avoiding Cockroaches
September, 2018
“In the world of business, bad news often surfaces serially: you see a cockroach in your kitchen; as the days go by, you meet his relatives”- Buffett There has been a lot of coverage about the recent melt-up in emerging markets. Since the start of the year the Turkish Lira and Argentine Peso have plunged […]
Learning from the Stoics
August, 2018
A holiday by the beach is not truly complete without a good book. One of our analysts picked up ‘Meditations’ by the Roman Emperor and part time stoic philosopher Marcus Aurelius. Even Roman Emperors needed a side gig. He wrote about: Using our minds to paint a realistic picture of the world around us The […]
Buying What You Understand
August, 2018
A black box is an abstract concept. You have some input into the black box, it does some magic and you get a desired output. And the reality is you don’t ask too many questions as long as it works. But, of course, the engineer behind the black box knows precisely how it works. Now […]
Why it pays to get advice
August, 2018
Remember pension mis-selling? Of course you do. How about bond washing and boiler room scams? Or PPI and Libor fixing? The sad fact is that the list of recent financial and investment scandals is damning. So you’d think the chances of more coming to light would be slim. But you’d be wrong. Two key financial […]
Remember the power of three
August, 2018
When the markets rise we get annoyed if we haven’t forecast it. Equally when it falls all of us at Tacit Investment Management get mad that we ever invested in the first place. It’s a phenomenon known as ‘the psychology of missing out.’ It’s our human fear of being left behind. And of course it […]
Is Value Investing Dead?
August, 2018
One principle of value investing has always been mean reversion. If you buy something for less than its worth, eventually the market will notice and push the price up. The key question of course is how do you measure ‘worth’. In 1934 when Benjamin Graham wrote Security Analysis, his definition of worth was based on […]