Perspectives
Context is vital when investing for the longer term
January, 2022
As January draws to a close one point has confused many investors: why is my portfolio value down whilst the Footsie 100 has risen? This observation is a valid one over this short period and we feel it needs explanation and putting into the context of history. Firstly, the geographic breakdown of our strategies is […]
Stockmarket Volatility
January, 2022
Investment management is a discipline founded on mathematics, however there are so few mathematical certainties within it. Rather, investors are usually dealing with probabilities; things that might happen based on our best estimates of a range of contingent variables. There is however one mathematical relationship which is fundamental; that between “price” and “yield.” Yields move […]
Time in the market versus timing the market
January, 2022
Investors are taught that markets are unpredictable, that past performance is no guide to the future! Why then is past performance used by the average investor when making fund selection decisions? The following example is rather old but holds true today and provides an insight into why the Tacit thought process steers clear of forecasts. […]
Diversification is good and bad for long term returns
December, 2021
Imagine you are a schoolteacher. You are looking for a new job and there are two alternatives. The first involves a small school – there are 20 pupils, admitted for their ability. It isn’t an easy job. You will be responsible for keeping a very close eye on the children, analysing their every move, every […]
Why has the velocity of money been falling whilst QE is expanding?
December, 2021
The velocity of money measures how many times a pound or dollar is spent. It is a good indicator of whether firms and consumers are confident enough to go out and spend. It can therefore act as a barometer of economic growth. The more transactions in an economy, the healthier the economy. Conventional economic theory […]
Inflation: Transitory or Not?
November, 2021
Cast your mind back to 1990: Nelson Mandela was released from prison, Tim Berners-Lee published a proposal that would lead to the creation of the World Wide Web, East and West Germany reunited after the fall of the Soviet Union and British Gilt-edged securities paid investors 12.74% (in April 1990) annually guaranteed by the taxpayer. […]
Strategy Update
November, 2021
Over the past few weeks, it has been difficult to ignore the increasing news flow around inflation and whether this is ‘transient’ or a more permanent phenomenon. During 2020 we wrote at length about the impact of COVID on global supply chains and how this would impact the world economy in the short, medium, and […]
Don’t lead, follow The Money
November, 2021
Environmental investing has gained prominence over the last few years. As the evidence showing the human impact on the climate piles up, companies and governments are increasingly voting with their wallets instead of just paying lip service to the issue. This naturally has implications for us as custodians of your investments. The trend towards sustainable […]
COP26 and Negative Externalities
November, 2021
Jared Diamond, the distinguished geographer and historian, recounts the result of a seminar he was giving about the Polynesian island of Rapa Nui, known to us more commonly as Easter Island. Back in the mists of time the geological record shows that the island was heavily forested. Today there is not a tree anywhere on […]
Beware Money Illusion
October, 2021
We have written many times over the past decade about the difference between real and nominal values. Preserving the real value of an asset means that it must grow in line with inflation over time. Nominal values are what most people notice, however real values preserve your purchasing power in the future. In economics, money […]