Perspectives

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Money Illusion

October, 2019

Money is a more slippery concept than you might imagine. The story goes that money was invented to replace barter. It’s clearly very hard to make an estimate of how many shoes are equal to a bushel of wheat although I was once offered “two camels for my wife” on a trip to Egypt. On […]

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Rembrandt’s & Perception

October, 2019

Why do people sometimes spend lavish amounts of money on pieces of art? It could be for purely personal reasons; they like the painter. It could be for aesthetic reasons; they like the painting. It could also be for financial reasons; they believe it can be sold at a higher price in the near future. […]

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Stay Focused on your Objective

October, 2019

With the focus very much on short term issues in the UK and US, we believe investors are missing key longer-term implications being highlighted in government bond markets. Government bond yields around the world have continued to fall even whilst economic growth has rebounded over the past decade. This puzzles most investors as the standard […]

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Bayes’ Rule

September, 2019

Thomas Bayes was an English Presbyterian minister and statistician known for formulating Bayes’ rule. Its practical application has been very useful since it was published in 1763. It was partly responsible for cracking the enigma code during the Second World War and tracking Russian submarines during the Cold War. In the modern world, its applications […]

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Forced Sellers

September, 2019

One of our analysts recently tried to buy a house plant for the office. These however don’t come cheap if bought new from a garden centre or plant shop. Being a value investor on the hunt for a quality bargain, searching for forced sellers comes naturally. People moving houses or offices often sell their plants […]

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It’s A Looking Glass World

September, 2019

The period in which we live is drenched in contradictions; political, economic and financial. The poor old White Queen has been dragged from the pages of Through the Looking Glass to declaim on believing “six impossible things before breakfast” more times than we can count. Most recently on the Today programme this week. The financial […]

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Beware the Noise

September, 2019

Over the last few days, the news has been largely negative – from the rising risks of a no-deal Brexit to Boris Johnson’s suspension of parliament and a falling sterling. We have highlighted many times before that the noise created by political events must be blocked out when making longer term investment decisions, no matter […]

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Rational Optimism

August, 2019

Blaise Pascal, the French mathematician and philosopher aptly diagnosed the human condition over 300 years ago. “All of man’s miseries derive from not being able to sit in a quiet room alone”. This is because we hate being bored and can’t stop ourselves from worrying. Boredom and worry are not the ally of the investor […]

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How Might A No-deal Be Positive?

August, 2019

G K Chesterton once noted that to defeat an argument you needed to be able to state your opposition’s case, “better than they could.” With the likelihood of the UK falling out of the EU without a deal rising, we need to consider whether such an outturn could be beneficial to investors in the UK […]

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The Role of Stabilisers

August, 2019

The venture capitalist Paul Graham said that investors should treat optimism similarly to how one would treat the core of a nuclear reactor – as a source of power that is also very  dangerous. “You have to build a shield around it or it will fry you”. This is similar to how we view the […]

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