Perspectives

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Time in the market versus timing the market

January, 2022

Investors are taught that markets are unpredictable, that past performance is no guide to the future! Why then is past performance used by the average investor when making fund selection decisions? The following example is rather old but holds true today and provides an insight into why the Tacit thought process steers clear of forecasts. […]

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Diversification is good and bad for long term returns

December, 2021

Imagine you are a schoolteacher. You are looking for a new job and there are two alternatives. The first involves a small school – there are 20 pupils, admitted for their ability. It isn’t an easy job. You will be responsible for keeping a very close eye on the children, analysing their every move, every […]

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Why has the velocity of money been falling whilst QE is expanding?

December, 2021

The velocity of money measures how many times a pound or dollar is spent. It is a good indicator of whether firms and consumers are confident enough to go out and spend. It can therefore act as a barometer of economic growth. The more transactions in an economy, the healthier the economy. Conventional economic theory […]

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Inflation: Transitory or Not?

November, 2021

Cast your mind back to 1990: Nelson Mandela was released from prison, Tim Berners-Lee published a proposal that would lead to the creation of the World Wide Web, East and West Germany reunited after the fall of the Soviet Union and British Gilt-edged securities paid investors 12.74% (in April 1990) annually guaranteed by the taxpayer. […]

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Strategy Update

November, 2021

Over the past few weeks, it has been difficult to ignore the increasing news flow around inflation and whether this is ‘transient’ or a more permanent phenomenon. During 2020 we wrote at length about the impact of COVID on global supply chains and how this would impact the world economy in the short, medium, and […]

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Don’t lead, follow The Money

November, 2021

Environmental investing has gained prominence over the last few years. As the evidence showing the human impact on the climate piles up, companies and governments are increasingly voting with their wallets instead of just paying lip service to the issue. This naturally has implications for us as custodians of your investments. The trend towards sustainable […]

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COP26 and Negative Externalities

November, 2021

Jared Diamond, the distinguished geographer and historian, recounts the result of a seminar he was giving about the Polynesian island of Rapa Nui, known to us more commonly as Easter Island. Back in the mists of time the geological record shows that the island was heavily forested. Today there is not a tree anywhere on […]

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Beware Money Illusion

October, 2021

We have written many times over the past decade about the difference between real and nominal values. Preserving the real value of an asset means that it must grow in line with inflation over time. Nominal values are what most people notice, however real values preserve your purchasing power in the future. In economics, money […]

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Corporate Debt & Creative Destruction

October, 2021

The Bank of England published its quarterly “Financial Stability Report” recently and it is no surprise to find that companies have resorted to borrowing to get them through the Covid pandemic. What is more interesting is the distribution of the increase in debt. It is overwhelmingly in the smaller company sector. The term “blue-chip” harks […]

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On inflation (and other matters)

October, 2021

It is hard in the UK to get away from the memories of the 1970s, when the government lost control of inflation, or the early 1990s when Black Wednesday occurred and the British government was forced to withdraw the Pound from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM), following a failed attempt to keep the pound […]

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