Tacit Thought
Looking back and, most importantly, ahead
January, 2025
The slower pace of living for most people over the Christmas and New Year season is often a time for taking stock of the year that has been and the prospects of the one beginning. This year, there has been more than usual to occupy walks in the park and dinner-table conversation. In what seems […]
Overdiversification can be as risky as not diversifying
December, 2024
Imagine you are a school teacher. You are looking for a new job and there are two alternatives. The first involves a small school – there are 20 pupils. It isn’t an easy job. You will be responsible for keeping a very close eye on the children, analysing their every move every day and hoping […]
The role of energy in economic growth
December, 2024
The cost of energy has always been a significant factor in a region’s or country’s economic growth model. Be it the reliance on oil from the middle east countries or the reliance of Europe on Russian gas more recently, the price of energy plays a significant role in the economic prospects of an economy. Over […]
Literally or Seriously?
November, 2024
In 1650, during the English Civil War, Oliver Cromwell wrote to the Scottish Kirk with the plea, “I beseech you in the bowels of Christ, consider that you may be mistaken.” The re-election of Donald Trump to the US Presidency is gravely consequential, but outside of the US Midwest, it has been greeted with a […]
Conflicting agendas
November, 2024
The election of Donald Trump as the next US President has refocused attention on the Ukraine war over the past month. News flow has focused on what Trump might mean by ‘doing a deal in one day’ to end the war. We at Tacit have no special insight into what President Trump will attempt to […]
What are tariffs and are they good or bad?
November, 2024
The word tariff (the most beautiful word in the dictionary according to the US President Elect) relates to a tax or duty imposed by a government on imported or exported goods. They are typically used to regulate trade, protect domestic industries, and generate government revenue. Tariffs can either increase the price of foreign goods, making […]
A result rather than uncertainty
November, 2024
The US elections were the last major election of 2024 and therefore we are now moving into a period of less political uncertainty and less political risk for investment markets to deal with. The immediate market reaction was pretty much as expected: US$ up, US bond yields up, US equities up, Asian equities (China mainly) […]
Whatever your politics, the budget in the UK this week matters.
November, 2024
As investors, our primary focus is on what the chancellor Rachel reeves is trying to achieve and most importantly whether she can deliver on the plan. Firstly some context. The UK economy, as shown in the chart below, has grown at a very slow rate over the past decade. This is well below the historic […]
The long term is difficult to predict
October, 2024
This week Goldman Sachs published some research which concluded that they expect US equity returns to be lower than the rest of the world over the coming decade. This would be a reversal of the past decade which has seen US equities outperform almost all other markets by a substantial margin. The basic rationale for […]
A timely reminder that a good company is not always a good investment
October, 2024
Artificial intelligence and technology companies are all the rage at present. General perception is that the share price of any business that is involved in supplying or providing services in the artificial intelligence sector will have gone up over the last few years. This lazy view is actually not correct. This week, investors were reminded […]