Tacit Thought

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EI Group Bought by Stonegate

July, 2019

One of the UK’s top leisure activities is still, “going down the pub.” The eating and drinking market according to the MCA UK Pub Market Report (2018) is worth £89 billion per year. Despite the well documented decline in public house numbers, it’s estimated that 15 pubs a week are closing, there are still some […]

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Forecasting

July, 2019

“If you spend more than 13 minutes analysing economic and market forecasts, you’ve wasted 10 minutes”. This is a quote from Peter Lynch, the Fund manager of Fidelity’s Magellan fund. During his tenure, the fund had an annualised return of 30% over a 13-year period. While this quote carries a hint of hyperbole, its message […]

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A Price for Everything

July, 2019

It is often written that “uncertainty creates opportunity”. While this sounds trite, it is nevertheless true. Uncertainty can create opportunity through low prices. All investors know that Brexit has effected the UK equity market negatively; this is not however a one way street. The chart above shows that there has been a steady increase in […]

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Second Order Thinking

June, 2019

In the long term, most fund managers get average results because they are first order thinkers. A first order thinker will say something like “Apple’s earnings growth will decline because of a slowdown in phone upgrades and stiffer competition from other smart phone brands, therefore sell the stock”. A second order thinker will say “Apple […]

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Investing for the Long Term

June, 2019

Following a week where investors have begun to question long term investing and star fund managers, we feel it is important to provide some context. In simplistic terms there are two ways to invest: either to be a longer term investor in assets or to be a trader in short term market moves. Both approaches […]

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Defensive Stocks

June, 2019

A discussion about utilities act as weights on the eyelids and will put most people to sleep. This reputation is well deserved. Utilities are boring companies engaged in supplying a necessary service like electricity, water, internet and mobile services that customers will pay for come rain or shine. While some of the traditional utility companies […]

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An Illiquid Lunch

June, 2019

Feedback loops camouflage under different names in the domains of science and business. In physics for example, chain reactions are feedback loops where a reaction creates products which in turn allows additional reactions to occur. This self-reinforcing pattern is responsible for many important reactions that have shaped the modern world, the most famous of which […]

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The State We are In

May, 2019

One of the interesting aspects of the Brexit wars is that the longer it has gone on, the further removed it has become from the underlying economy. Brexit, seemingly, has become an end in itself but the fact remains that it is the economy that underpins our way of life. So what is going on? […]

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Thucydides Trap & Trade Wars

May, 2019

The outcome of the continuing trade war between the USA and China is difficult to forecast. At Tacit, we don’t believe in reading tea leaves, which our peers in the industry fancifully refer to as economic forecasting. We do however believe in looking at history as a rough guide to the future. The tension between […]

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What’s in a price?

May, 2019

For most people, their home is their largest asset. Yet, how many people get daily or monthly appraisals for their homes? And if this information was readily available, would it do anyone any good? Imagine if your home traded like an equity and you could sell fractional pieces of it to the public in exchange […]