Perspectives

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Plan B or no plan B? That is the question

January, 2019

There’s an old stock market saying, perhaps Shakespearean, that goes like this: ‘Everything has a price.” The proverb came into sharp focus this week during the Brexit brouhaha. The theory goes that we’re psychologically hardwired to place greater importance on current events than those of the past. Evolutionary biology apparently places a premium on survival […]

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The Ick Factor

January, 2019

No it’s not a Simon Cowell spin off show. But it is something that gets our vote. The investment community regularly borrows language from the outside world. Take the word catalyst for example. It’s normally used in the context of a chemical reaction. A catalyst, in investor speak however, is an event that has a […]

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2018 through the rear-view mirror

January, 2019

A turkey that has been cared for by a farmer for the entirety of its life has no reason to think that same person will kill it for food one day. The turkey looks at life through the rear-view mirror and its concept of the future is limited to what has happened in its recent […]

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Compounding Probabilities

December, 2018

A monkey randomly hitting computer keys for an infinite amount of time will in due course reproduce all the works of Charles Dickens. This monkey would also type everything written by Shakespeare, Hemingway, Achebe, the Harry Potter stories – you name it. This may sound absurd, but it’s mathematically correct and becomes obvious once we […]

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How we manage the Brexit blues

December, 2018

Whilst the UK political environment remains uncertain, it is important to stay focused on investing and not to speculate. At Tacit our ‘Growth/Stabiliser’ approach to portfolio construction is specifically designed for testing times like these. We thought long and hard about our ‘Thought’ this week. Client communication is especially important through these difficult periods. Access […]

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Market Cycles and Fraud

November, 2018

Jim Chanos is probably the best short seller in the world and has spent his career searching for frauds and companies with questionable business models including the likes of Enron, Tyco and more recently Valeant Pharmaceuticals. While we stay away from short selling (i.e. wagering that a company’s share price will fall) we listen intently […]

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Uncertainty or Opportunity?

November, 2018

Over the last few days, uncertainty regarding Brexit has increased the perceived risks of investing in the UK market. As we have a large weighting towards large blue chip UK companies, we thought it may be useful at this time to explain the investment thesis behind one of our large holdings. The M&G Recovery fund […]

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Will May end in November?

November, 2018

It was Helmut von Molte, known as the father of German military strategy who said that no plan survives contact with the enemy. It’s Theresa May’s bad luck to have spent most of the past two years developing a Brexit plan that’s succeeded only in uniting her enemies both of the Left and the Right. Following […]

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Thinking about the Mid-terms

November, 2018

“It’s eight o’clock, good morning and here is the fake news!” Now that’s not something you’d expect to hear in any news broadcast. But with the results of the US midterm elections well documented, both sides unsurprisingly are claiming victory. Here are the factual headlines. The Democrats have taken control of the House of Representatives. […]

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Using Volatility to Our Advantage

November, 2018

Speak to anyone in the financial world right now and they’ll say the same thing. “It’s a jungle out there!” Well if they don’t quite use those words that’s what they mean. At Tacit we’ve been using the market volatility to tactically trade out of and in to certain holdings. Our headlines? These are they. […]

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