Perspectives

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Thinking about the Mid-terms

November, 2018

“It’s eight o’clock, good morning and here is the fake news!” Now that’s not something you’d expect to hear in any news broadcast. But with the results of the US midterm elections well documented, both sides unsurprisingly are claiming victory. Here are the factual headlines. The Democrats have taken control of the House of Representatives. […]

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Using Volatility to Our Advantage

November, 2018

Speak to anyone in the financial world right now and they’ll say the same thing. “It’s a jungle out there!” Well if they don’t quite use those words that’s what they mean. At Tacit we’ve been using the market volatility to tactically trade out of and in to certain holdings. Our headlines? These are they. […]

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Easy Money

October, 2018

The recent decline of some high-flying stocks does not come as much of a surprise to us. We didn’t try to forecast exactly when it would happen, but high valuations, mediocre financials and tightening credit (i.e. interest rates going up) increase the odds of poor performance. You don’t need to know the precise date when […]

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Buy and Hold

October, 2018

Investing is all about opportunity cost and unless you are re-investing your cash into growing a business, your alternatives are broadly limited to: Cash in the bank Cash under the mattress Bonds (corporate and government) Shares in companies Real assets (gold, property etc) Bitcoin, lion teeth, art and other esoteric assets In the long term […]

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Remember Your Objective in Difficult Times

October, 2018

Investment returns are never generated in a straight line. If they were, life would be much simpler. Over the past week we have seen a significant fall in equity markets, with technology shares bearing the brunt of the selloff following many years of positive returns. At Tacit we have always explained that you cannot forecast […]

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Uncommon Common Sense

October, 2018

Around the 6th century, Slavic people from modern day Czech, Slovakia, Poland, Russia and elsewhere in central Europe began to appear in great numbers all over the continent. The origin of the Slavic people puzzled historians for centuries. Anthropologists and linguists were also left scratching their heads for clues. It wasn’t until the 1800s when […]

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Why we shouldn’t cry for Argentina

September, 2018

We got all sentimental this week. We held our quarterly Investment Strategy Group meeting to discuss opportunities and risks in global markets. Someone brought up Argentina and the words of the hit song came flooding back. “And as for fortune and as for fame, I never invited them in.” And so on. So why Argentina? […]

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Understanding Risk

September, 2018

The global economy is often described as a machine. The problem with this analogy is that machines operate in the physical world where there is a strong link between cause and effect. Outcomes in the physical world are often deterministic. This is why we can accurately predict the motion of distant planets or the precise […]

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Ten Years After the Crash

September, 2018

Zhou Enlai, the first Premier of the People’s Republic of China was asked what he thought the significance of the French Revolution was for Western civilisation. He thought for a moment and replied: “it’s too early to tell.” Ten years after the global financial crisis what are the lessons for us to learn or is […]

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Avoiding Cockroaches

September, 2018

“In the world of business, bad news often surfaces serially: you see a cockroach in your kitchen; as the days go by, you meet his relatives”- Buffett There has been a lot of coverage about the recent melt-up in emerging markets. Since the start of the year the Turkish Lira and Argentine Peso have plunged […]

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